When we set up our model we of course had the German system in mind. However, in principle it should work for any multi-party system with proportional representation. By coincidence New Zealand goes to the polls just one day ahead of Germany, and luckily they have a electoral system pretty similar to the one in Germany.

Here is our forecast of the New Zealand election.

So here it is our forecast of the New Zealand election:

Interesting probabilities

The probability that National will become the strongest party is 79%, this gives Labour a chance of 21% becoming the biggest party. Looking at the 5%-threshold the Greens have a probability of 98% of clearing it and we give NZ First a probability of 85% to get at least 5% of the votes.